Friday, January 28, 2011

What's Going On In Egypt?

That's a question every one of us should be asking.

The riots in Egypt are threatening a government that has been pro-US for 30 years. While not exactly a democracy, Mubarak's government has been a stabilizing force in the Middle East. It is one of the primary reasons for continued peace between Isreal and its neighbors. The riots are supposedly driven by the heavy handed nature of the government, and rapidly rising food and fuel prices. That's just the kindling. The spark is coming from radical Islamists, based in Syria and Iran. Toppling the Egyptian government and replacing it with something more in line with their wishes would be a great victory for radical Islam - a defeat for the US and its policies, coupled with a natural, strong enemy againgst peace with Isreal.

The US has provided Egypt with a modern military. It is perhaps third in the region to Isreal, and Saudi Arabia. Allowing this firepower to end up in the hands of a radical Islamist state is unthinkable.

This effort, led by Iran, is spreading all over the place. The pro-western government of Lebanon fell months ago to Hezbollah ... a terrorist organization directed and funded by Syria and Iran. Protests are springing up in Jordan against the pro-western government there. Albania is seeing protests. Tunisia's pro-US government was toppled recenly, and replaced by one that is not pro-US. Iran's influence is even spreading to South America, with Hugo Chavez' assistance. Turkey, once one of our greatest allies, has backed away from us - that is another military we have armed with modern, lethal weapons systems.

This is some serious sh*t, folks. Some of our strongest supporters in the Middle East are under attack. If they fall, they will be replaced by puppets under the control of Iran. Isreal will be under a huge threat to its very existence - with the lunatic running Iran already having threatened to use nukes (which he says his country doesn't have) on Tel Aviv.

What is happening over there will have a direct impact upon us sooner or later. Stability in the region is a good thing. Radical Islam making further headway into taking over countries that have been out allies is definitely a very bad thing.

Update - The situation our government finds itself in in regards to what is happening in Egypt is a very difficult one. On one hand, we want the people of Egypt to have Democracy, and to be out from under the fist of what was essentially a dictator. On the other hand, the stability that dictator gave ot the region, and his pro-US stance over the past 3 decades have been immensely important to our security and interests.

Obama and his administration are walking a tightrope. Even though I don't care for him or his regime, I recognize the difficulty. However, they are making some very bad mistakes in their approach. His handpicked messenger to Mubarack has come out and publicly made statements contrary to Obama's public statements on what we wish to happen. HIllary has backtracked and restated her position several times. Diane Feinstein (D-CA), a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, has publicly come out and stated that we really don't know what is going on over there.

Obama has got to get control of his own people and keep a single, unified message coming out.

As far as the conflict itself, the longer it runs, the better the chance the government will wholly or in part be hijacked by the Muslim Brotherhood, a 'political' organization that has publicly aligned itself with Iran. The pro-Democracy movement is very likely to become the vehicle by which another radical Islamic state comes into being - just like Iran did when the Shah was ousted by students protesting for Democracy and giving the country to religious hardliners.

The United States, indeed the world, cannot afford to have Egypt turn into another Iran.

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