Tuesday, October 19, 2010

What Will November 3rd Bring To Us?

If all goes according to what is being predicted, we will wake up on Nov. 3rd with a much different looking government. From Congress to local races, this is looking like the most historic turnaround in an off year election in our country's history. The only real question anyone with any sense is asking is 'how bad will it be for Democrats?'.

The polls that I trust most (which doesn't mean that any poll is worth the paper it is written on) say that 55 current Democrat seats will change to Republican in the House of Representatives. This will give the Republicans a 16 seat majority. The same polls show Democrats holding onto control of the Senate, but only by 1 or 2 seats. If Republicans had put up some strong candidates in 3 or 4 very close Senate races, instead of the weak ones that are running, Republican control of the Senate would have been assured. As it is, I believe Congress will be split.

What does that mean, beyond the obvious? What should we expect to start happening 'The Day After'?

Maybe not as much as you think ...

Passing laws:

Republican control of the House and Dem control of the Senate will mean legislative gridlock in Washington for the next 2 years. Nothing of any consequence is going to get done. Anything Obama wants to get done will have to originate in the Senate, and Republicans in the House will block it.

Republican control of both the House and Senate will not be much different. Obama has the veto on his side, and he will use it to defeat any measure that slows down or repeals any of his agenda. It takes a 2/3 majority to override his veto, and Republicans won't have that big an advantage on either side.

Republicans can either accept this and let nothing happen for 2 years, or they can force the issue. They should pass legislation over and over that calls for spending cuts, for repeal of Obamacare, to roll back all of what Obama has forced on this country. I've heard Boehner actually talk about this - sending one bill per week up that calls for spending cuts. Force Obama to use his veto. Force him to show himself as the obstacle to recovery. Show America that Republicans are doing everything they can to rescue the country.

Repeal of Obamacare:

In spite of some Republicans campaigning with this as their stated goal, don't hold your breath expecting Obamacare to be rolled back. Repeal of this massive mess would take an overwhelming amount of support in both houses of Congress, from both Republicans and Democrats. The votes aren't there to override an Obama veto, which would certainly be used on any piece of legislation attacking Obamacare.

The timetable for Obamacare's implementation was well thought out. The majority of its financial hit on the average American won't be felt until 2014 - after the mid terms, and after the 2012 presidential election. By that time, no amount of public outcry will be enough to derail Obamacare - it will be so entrenched in our society by then, there will be no way to get rid of it.

In addition, there are reports circulating around that top Republicans in the Senate are quietly assuring their biggest private and corporate donors that no such attempt at repeal will be made. Some tweaks and streamlining is all they will allow to happen. Why? Follow the money ...

Sadly, I feel that our hopes will rest on just being able to cut back a little bit on Obamacare - to perhaps dull some of the more blatant harm it will do to us. I might be wrong, but the history of Washington politics indicates it is here to stay.

Congressional leadership:

John Boenher (R-OH) should become the next Speaker of the House. This, however, is not guaranteed, even given Republican control of the House. His Republican colleagues must vote for the Speaker's position - there are no clear challengers to Boehner at this point, but it should not be a surprise if a more conservative Republican challenged him for the post.

In any case, it would be better than the creature that occupies that position now. How many of you realize that Nancy Pelosi is the #3 person in the United States? If something happened to Obama and Biden, Pelosi would be President. (Feel free to experience a shiver of horror up your spine as you think about that).

If Republicans take control of the Senate, the field appears to be very open as to which Republican would take the position as leader of the Senate. I don't care who he/she is - if anyone in the Senate (other than Al Franken) other than Harry Reid takes that position, it is an improvement.

If Dems keep control of the Senate, things will be very interesting. If Harry Reid loses his Senate seat election, the Dems will be fighting tooth and nail amongst themselves to see who takes over. If Reid wins his seat back, do not be surprised if other Democrats mount serious attempts to remove him as leader of the Senate - he's a disgrace, and embarrassment, and Dems know it. Talk about a pack of wild hogs turning on themselves - that will be the Democrats in the Senate if they keep control.

Whether Dems keep control of the House or not, Pelosi is going to be in a fight to keep her place - whether it as Speaker or Minority Leader. Many moderate Dems have come out against her during this election cycle, campaigning against her and Obama as much as their Republican opponent. Her poison power politics are a primary reason many House Dems are going to lose their jobs on Nov. 2. It would not surprise me at all to see her challenged for the leadership position. Dogfight !!!!

Congressional Committees/Investigations:

The party that controls each side of Congress gets to appoint whomever it wants to to lead all of its various committees. It gets a majority of seats on those committees. It controls what those committees do, what subjects they can look into. They can use the committees for any political purpose they want to. Just look at Henry Waxman and Barney Frank to see how this can be used for evil purposes. Republican control of either (or both) houses means Republican control of these committees. These Democrat mini-Hitlers who have used their positions to kickoff witch hunts will find themselves out of control, and unable to stop what happens. Several top Republicans in the House have already stated that they will launch investigations into Obama, Pelosi, Reid, et al, as soon as they are seated. Good ... don't pull any punches. Throw these a*holes in jail if you can. Keep them so busy defending themselves that they don't have any time left to continue to screw the country.

Some folks in power have said to take the high road, to not be vindictive. Bullshit ... George W. Bush took that stance when he took power, giving a de facto blanket immunity to everyone in the Clinton Administration for what they had done. Did Obama do that when he took office? No ... using Waxman as its designated hit troll, the Dems went after anyone and everyone remotely associated with the Bush Administration. Republicans should do the very same to them.


The 2012 Presidential race begins on Nov. 3. The Democrat strategy, no matter how much Republicans control, will be to villify Republicans. The GOP will be painted as the part of NO, obstructionists, racists, and worse. Everything negative that happens will be attributed to Republicans ... while everything positive will be credited to Obama. Here's what you will hear, over and over ..."If Republicans would have just let Obama do what he needed to do, everything would have been fine. Republicans derailed Obama's recovery, just when it was picking up steam and saving America."

Just get ready for it - it will be loud and constant, and if Republicans aren't strong with their message and take the offensive, the Dem lies will result in 4 more years of Obama.

Public Perception:

Republicans will probably ride a large wave of public outcry into Nov. 2. Outcry against what our government has done to us over the past 2 years. Many folks who identify themselves as independents, and even Democrats, will vote for change (how ironic is that?). They are going to expect results, and they will expect them quickly. If Republican leadership in the House and Senate don't come up with working, hard hitting, successful methods of rescuing our economy ... if they sit back and congratulate themselves on achieving power once again ... if they fall into the 'same old Washington' way of doing things ... the backlash in 2012 will likewise be historic.

1 comment:

Margot said...

Make no mistake, I will be first in line to exercise my right to vote come November. Unfortunately i think our country is going to implode regardless of who gains what seat in Washington. Watching the streets of France is like waiting for a shot - you really wish you didn't have to get it, but you also wish you could just get it over with. There are undercurrents in this country that are rising. We have a president who refuses to use the word "Creator" when quoting our constitution, NPR no longer believes in free speech, the grocery store is ridiculous (and I still am blessed to have a good job) and there are many people who are waiting for Obama to start paying all their bills - I could go on and on. The country is in for some ugly times that go beyond the elephant/donkey show down. I will go vote, but then I will come home and dig my fox hole.